New Poll Shows Bill O’Dea in Second Place, With Clear Path to Victory in Jersey City Mayoral Race

County Commissioner Has Best Favorability Ratings, Most Room to Grow Support in Mayoral Field 

Mayoral candidate Bill O’Dea is currently in second place according to a new poll his campaign recently commissioned, with a clear path to victory once voters learn more about his record and his plans for Jersey City. Conducted by nationally recognized pollster Hart Research Group, the poll shows that O’Dea has the most room of any candidate to grow his support as voters learn more about his background as a lifelong Jersey City resident, longtime elected official and nonprofit affordable housing leader. In fact, O’Dea jumps to first place in the survey once voters are told about his record of accomplishments in key areas like helping people in need, voting against tax increases and standing up for Democratic values, without including any negative messaging on other candidates. 

A polling memo from Hart Research Group is attached here detailing the results. 

“Bill O’Dea has been building a true grassroots campaign for more than a year, and now that hard work is paying off as he is poised to secure a place in the city’s runoff election and ultimately defeat Jim McGreevey,” said O’Dea for Mayor Campaign Media Strategist Phil Swibinski. “As voters learn more about Bill’s history as a lifelong Jersey City resident and a dedicated public servant his support grows significantly, putting him in a strong position as the campaign ramps up. With an engaged volunteer base, a strong Council ticket and the resources to communicate his message across the city, Bill O’Dea is ready to win this election and deliver the leadership that Jersey City residents deserve.” 

According to the Hart Research memo, O’Dea brings several unique strengths to the table as a mayoral candidate: 

• O’Dea’s favorable/unfavorable net rating is the strongest in the field at +33, outpacing McGreevey at +21 and Solomon at +18 

• Among the three leading candidates O’Dea’s current support is far more committed with 70% “strongly supporting” the candidate, significantly more than his opponents who are at 54% and 48% “strong support,” respectively 

• When presented with positive biographical information about the three candidates, O’Dea’s vote share increases significantly (+8 points) and puts him in a clear second place position with 26% of the vote 

• After hearing additional positive information about O’Dea’s record, he jumps into first place with 35% of the vote 

Additionally, the poll finds that much of McGreevey’s current lead is based primarily on higher name recognition due to his massive early campaign spending, and that growing his support beyond this current level will be far more challenging. The former governor’s biography has a negligible impact on his vote share, he has the highest negatives in the field and O’Dea is currently unknown by 52% of the initial McGreevey voters. As O’Dea increases his name identification, he can anticipate picking up significant additional support both from currently undecided voters as well as soft McGreevey supporters.